Bayes' Theorem Calculator

Posterior probability P(H|E) from a prior, true-positive rate and false-positive rate.

Free tier eligible — 500 calls/month with a free key from /pricing; x402 pay-per-call above quota.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Required	Description
`prior`	number	required	Prior probability P(H), 0..1
`sensitivity`	number	required	True-positive rate P(E\|H), 0..1
`false_positive`	number	required	False-positive rate P(E\|not H), 0..1

Call it over MCP (JSON-RPC 2.0)

curl -s https://wingmanprotocol.com/mcp \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc": "2.0", "id": 1, "method": "tools/call", "params": {"name": "bayes", "arguments": {"prior": 100, "sensitivity": 100, "false_positive": 100}}}'

Or plain HTTP

curl -s https://wingmanprotocol.com/tools/bayes \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -d '{"prior": 100, "sensitivity": 100, "false_positive": 100}'

Try it live

Edit the JSON and run it — this POSTs to https://wingmanprotocol.com/tools/bayes from your browser.

This tool is x402-metered — agents pay per call with USDC on Base. The 402 response below is the standard x402 payment-requirements envelope: sign the EIP-3009 authorization and retry with the X-Payment header, or get a free key at /pricing (500 calls/month, no card, no crypto).